Future Fuji

Steve's picture

I recently read a web article entitled “Ten Major Natural Disasters Predicted in the Near Future” …

http://listverse.com/2015/05/25/10-major-natural-disasters-predicted-in-the-near-future/

…and I saw Japan’s Mt. Fuji listed as Number 6. 

As you know, volcanoes have an arsenal of hazards at their disposal: Lahars, Lava Flows, Pyroclastic Blasts, Flank Collapse and Ash Fall.  I’ve run computer simulations and blogged here at least once on each of the first four.  Because ash fall looms as the most powerful weapon in Fuji's arsenal, it seems appropriate to focus on it today.

What do we need to run a computer simulation of ash fall?

(1) Because prevailing winds carry volcanic ash, the first requirement is a wind map. Winds vary with geographic location, season and altitude. The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) conveniently supplies this information…

The next two ingredients are:

(2) An ash injection rate into the atmosphere over the volcano at various altitudes, and

(3) A rate at which the ash drifts back down to Earth.

Using my (well greased) ‘Geophysical License’ and information from the previous eruption in 1707, I cooked up a plausible scenario. 

--Inject 1 1/4 cubic kilometers of ash into the atmosphere above the mountain over ten hours.

--Let material from the highest injection level (16 km) fall to Earth over several hours. 

Here is my prediction for the next Fuji eruption….

As you can see, prevailing west to east winds at nearly all altitudes over Fuji direct ash toward Tokyo Bay.

Now don’t expect to find Tokyo buried like Pompeii from Vesuvius -- most places might suffer accumulations of 2 to 40 cm.  Hardly more than a small winter snowfall you’d think, but unlike snow, even one cm of ash will kill food crops and make life difficult for animals and people for years afterward.  Good reason that risk modelers and insurance folks are deeply concerned about economic losses associated with potential volcanic eruptions…

http://www.asiainsurancereview.com/Magazine/ReadMagazineArticle?aid=35311

Couple the potency and widespread impact of ash fall with the dense population and infrastructure concentration of the Tokyo Bay region, I can understand why Fuji made #6 on that list above.

Steven N. Ward   Santa Cruz

Comments

ShirleyFWilliams's picture

Well written Post about Fuji. I enjoyed reading every words in it. Your blog has got many interesting posts which very nice to read. Thank you for the good and interesting post. Keep on writing.

http://www.triumphessays.com

DitaKaczmarek's picture

I was so happy to see my most loved bloggers back to posting this week. Don't hesitate to share some you could call https://awriter.org/essay-writer/ your own most loved like in the post.

sitakdesign's picture

I will always remember how you helped me to get this wonderful opportunity خانه هوشمند

Jodieburns00's picture

The minimal Marksman Specialist executes as impeccably as the full-size poles in the Hardy line. Tough has mellowed the activity a bit, to guarantee that the pole bolsters refined handle and lighter lines. Buy Coursework Online With unrivaled and considerably speedier striking and throwing execution, incompletely because of its high modulus carbon development and lightweight Fuji SIC line directs, this is an astounding pole.

angelamaria's picture

Good post..click here

Sherri Riley's picture

Have you made it all by your own? How much time have you spent? Did you offer your prognosis to Japan or islands? To me, as a worker of an average custom writing company, this looks huge!

robertjack's picture

Education is typically and officially divided Write my Assignment into stages along the lines of preschool, primary school, secondary school and next college, university or apprenticeship.

shilpass's picture

http://www.callgirlsinkarolbagh.com/contact-callgirls-in-karolbagh.html

The information you have given is incredibly valuable at all much a debt of gratitude is in order for offering accommodating information to us. 

movingguru's picture

Very good, I think I found the knowledge I needed. I will see and refer some information in your post. thank you.
packers and movers in bangalore

Watson's picture

Keep sharing your blog with updated and useful information.I am very pleased that I stumbled across this in my search for something relating to this sites.I have also bookmarked you for checking out new posts. Dollar One Hosting

Watson's picture

Very  Excellent post, This is perseveringly stunning and amazing. Such a structure for individuals like this blog page get-together and me. Get staggeringly more data. thanks you for sharing this blog post with us. Hostgator Black Friday Discount Sale

carywatson's picture

A quality substance is a way to deal with oversee welcome the clients to go to see the site page, that is the thing that this site is giving.

$1 godaddy domain

susannelson's picture

I've read all your information that you shares in your article and I really love it. Thank you for sharing this post. I appreciate it. street view 

ChrisGreenwelt's picture

According to the opinion of some academic help companies, the the place that you have shared, is really beautiful one and I believe that much pretty too to spend the best holidays there.

Celina's picture

Thank you for another essential article. I have learned a lot from your article. Thank so much, again! Voyance amour gratuite.

Risk Alert