More Rapid Change, Prince Rupert Region, Canada 1/ 2/ 2013
As readers of this blog know, I've been following locations of several large earthquakes to document time-dependent changes in local spatial forecast contours. Two weeks ago, we looked at the Prince Rupert, Canada area, site of the M7.7 earthquake that occurred near the Queen Charlotte Islands fault zone on 10/27/2012, causing a minor 1 meter tsunami in regions as far away as Hawaii. Forecast probabilities for future M>6.5 events over the next year and within 50 km seem to be adjusting and changing rapidly at the moment.
A compilation of these changes are represented in the figure below. The recovery in probability that has occurred over the last few days is interesting and may be significant.
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About OpenHazards Bloggers
Steven Ward is a Research Geophysicist at
the Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, UC Santa Cruz. He specializes in the quantification and simulation of
natural hazards. Read Steve's blog.
John Rundle is a Distinguished Professor of Physics
and Geology at UC Davis and
the Executive Director of the APEC Collaboration for Earthquake Simulations. He
chaired the Board of Advisors for the Southern California Earthquake Center from 1994 to 1996. Read John's blog.