Evolution of Southern California Probability 9/29/2012 to 11/23/2012

john's picture

Spatial probability contours can be seen by using the Earthquake Viewer tool under the tools tab.  In previous blogs, I have examined the change in spatial probability contours as they evolve over time.  Here I summarize the changes over just a few weeks from 9/29/2012 to 11/23/2012.  The changes are subtle but nevertheless visible. 

In the image below, I show three snapshots from 9/29, 11/11, and 11/23.  In the area contained within the red box, contours and therefore probabilities have been decreasing ("evaporating") over these weeks.  In the area encompassing the blue box, however, contours at first showed decreasing probability(9/29 to 11/1), followed by (11/11 to 11/23) a rebound or return to the configuration seen earlier (9/29). 

Risk Alert