M6.9 Earthquake Offshore Eureka, California, March 10, 2014
The earthquake occurred at 0700 PDT, 7 hours after the forecast for the figure below was computed (it is computed at midnight). Using the hazard viewer, we can draw a circle of 100 km radius around the epicenter. The forecast table (lower left corner) indicates that there was a 25% chance of an M>6 earthquake within the next year, and a 91.6% chance within the next 3 years.
(Update on March 11: The magnitude has been further refined to 6.8 rather than 6.9)
The contours and faults are shown below.
The forecast probability timeseries, also accessible on the viewer, showed that the probability of an M>6 event had been increasing since the last event in the region in 2009.
About OpenHazards Bloggers
Steven Ward is a Research Geophysicist at
the Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, UC Santa Cruz. He specializes in the quantification and simulation of
natural hazards. Read Steve's blog.
John Rundle is a Distinguished Professor of Physics
and Geology at UC Davis and
the Executive Director of the APEC Collaboration for Earthquake Simulations. He
chaired the Board of Advisors for the Southern California Earthquake Center from 1994 to 1996. Read John's blog.