Japan Four Cities South Forecast: April 17, 2011 (Updated from April 9)

john's picture

Similar to the previous forecasts for the four central-northern cities, we compute the probabilities for the four southwestern, Japan cities of Miyazaki, Nagasaki, Osaka, and Tokushima.  Here it can be seen that the largest probabilites are for Miyazaki and Nagasaki. 

These larger probabiliites arise both from the time since the last M>7 earthquake within 100 miles, as well as the relatively larger number of smaller earthquakes that have occurred since the last M>7 earthquake.  For example, the last M>7 earthquake within 100 miles of both Miyazaki and Nagasaki was on October 19, 1996, and the seismicity since that time indicates that the regions are apparently mature for larger earthquakes.

The corresponding data listed in table form is below.


Risk Alert