Four Cities Forecast: California Update (March 14, 2011)

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Visitors to this site have seen forecasts for the four California cites of Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco and Sacramento.  Some visitors have asked:  Has the Japanese M9.0 earthquake increased the seismic hazard in California?  As far as we can determine at this time, the answer is "no". 

Below we show an update of the four cites probabilities (chance of an earthquake) within 150 miles and within 1 year of March 14, 2011, for an event having magnitude > 7.0.  Comparison with the figures and tables in previous blogs shows that the probabilities, while increasing at their previous rates, have *not* responded to the Japanese quake with any unusual large increase.  San Diego has increased the most, but this may be due to normal catalog adjustments.

Below is the data in tabular form.


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