Four Cities Forecast: California Update (April 25, 2011)

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Previous postings in this series have presented forecasts for the four California cities of Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego, and Sacramento.  Forecasts are for earthquakes having magnitudes M>7, within 150 miles (243 km), and within 1 year from the present.  The last such posting was made on March 14, 2011, shortly after the great Tohoku, Japan, M9 earthquake. 

Below we show both the time series for the forecast, as before, together with the forecast data in table form.  No dramatic changes in hazard are evident, aside from the continuing increase in probability, and recovery from the April 4, 2010 El Mayor-Cucupah (Baja) earthquake.  There have been some adjustments to the earthquake data in the catalog which have led to small changes in the computed probabilities.  In addition, the model parameters have also been adjusted as part of a continuing updating of the model, leading to other small changes.  However, nothing beyond the quoted 2-standard deviation errors in computation/estimation are apparent. 

The data in tabular form are below.

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