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Recent Earthquake Teachable Moments

IRIS, the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology, maintains images, maps, and other information in downloadable powerpoint slide presentations.  This presents a great, quick way to learn about and discuss the magnitude 8.9 Japan earthquake and associated tsunami.

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Current Tsunami Warning for United States West Coast

This map also shows the current tsunami warning (red) and advisory (orange) for the west coast of N. America:

Image courtesy of NOAA.
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Japan Earthquake: Magnitude 8.9

From cnn.com:

The most powerful earthquake to hit Japan in at least 100 years struck offshore the island nation on Friday, collapsing buildings, touching off widespread fires and unleashing walls of water up to 30 feet high.

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Four Cities Forecast: California Update February 23, 2011

 

The magnitude 6.3 Canterbury, NZ earthquake that occurred on 22 February, severely damaging much of Christchurch, serves to remind all of us that major earthquakes can occur at any time, potentially affecting many major cities around the globe.  Since July 2010, we have been periodically updating the time dependent probability of major earthquakes in California near four of its principal cities, using an experimental new methodology.

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It's Hard to Forecast Earthquakes When There are No Data: The Canterbury Tales

 

Yesterday's magnitude 6.3 earthquake near Christchurch, NZ was the second major earthquake to strike that city in the past 6 months.  The previous event was the magnitude 7.1 earthquake that occurred on 4 September, 2010. 

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Four Cities Forecast: California Update September 15, 2010

The four cities forecast for California is the probability of experiencing a major earthquake having magnitude > 7 during the 12 months from now within 150 miles of the four cities shown.  The charts below are an update of the four cities forecast for California.  Previous updates to this forecast can be found in postings on July 8, 2010 and afterward.  Detailed explanations and details of how to read these charts can be found there.

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Four Cities Forecast: California Update August 3, 2010

The charts below are an update of the four cities forecast for California.  Previous updates to this forecast can be found in postings on July 8, 2010 and July 23, 2010.  Detailed explanations and details of how to read these charts can be found there.

It can be seen that the forecast for San Diego is 0.2% (20 basis points) higher than on July 23, 2010, due to the continuing small earthquake activity.  For Los Angeles, it can be seen that the current forecast is 0.05% (5 basis points) higher than on July 23, 2010.

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Four Cities Forecast: Japan(July 30, 2010)

Previous posts in this series have shown a new type of experimental forecast for 4 major California cities exposed to seismic hazard.  These forecasts are made in real time and will be updated frequently.  In this posting, we extend these forecasts to 4 major cities in Japan.  Future postings will develop forecasts for some of the world's other megacities (populations of millions) in seismically active regions.

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Four Cities Forecast: California Update July 28, 2010

The charts below are an update of the four cities forecast for California.  Previous updates to this forecast can be found in postings on July 8, 2010 and July 23, 2010.  Detailed explanations and details of how to read these charts can be found there. 

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Update July 23, 2010: Earthquake Forecasts for Four California Cities

In earlier postings, we have shown examples of some new kinds of forecasts that give promise for better capturing the time dependence of earthquake probabilities and forecasts of future activity. Again, these foreasts should be regarded as experimental at this time.  These were posted on July 8 and July19, 2010.  In this post we continue this process by posting a comparison of 1 year experimental forecasts for four California cities, together with a table that provides numerical comparisons.  

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