Four Cities Forecast: California Update September 15, 2010
The four cities forecast for California is the probability of experiencing a major earthquake having magnitude > 7 during the 12 months from now within 150 miles of the four cities shown. The charts below are an update of the four cities forecast for California. Previous updates to this forecast can be found in postings on July 8, 2010 and afterward. Detailed explanations and details of how to read these charts can be found there.
It can be seen that the chances of a major earthquake within 150 miles of these four cities has slightly increased since the last posting on August 3, 2010. This is because the rate of small earthquakes, which are used as markers for stress increase since the last earthquake, has decreased significantly. For that reason, the forecast probability values have essentially leveled off for the moment.
The corresponding data in tabular form is given below.
About OpenHazards Bloggers
Steven Ward is a Research Geophysicist at
the Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, UC Santa Cruz. He specializes in the quantification and simulation of
natural hazards. Read Steve's blog.
John Rundle is a Distinguished Professor of Physics
and Geology at UC Davis and
the Executive Director of the APEC Collaboration for Earthquake Simulations. He
chaired the Board of Advisors for the Southern California Earthquake Center from 1994 to 1996. Read John's blog.