Previous posts in this series have shown a new type of experimental forecast for 4 major California cities exposed to seismic hazard.  These forecasts are made in real time and will be updated frequently.  In this posting, we extend these forecasts to 4 major cities in Japan.  Future postings will develop forecasts for some of the world's other megacities (populations of millions) in seismically active regions.

In earlier postings, we have shown examples of some new kinds of forecasts that give promise for better capturing the time dependence of earthquake probabilities and forecasts of future activity. Again, these foreasts should be regarded as experimental at this time.  These were posted on July 8 and July19, 2010.  In this post we continue this process by posting a comparison of 1 year experimental forecasts for four California cities, together with a table that provides numerical comparisons.  

In 1969 the famous Japanese seismologist Kiyoo Mogi (1929-) wrote a paper entitled:  "Some Features of Recent Seismic Activity in and near Japan.  Activity before and after Great Earthquakes."  Published in the Bulletin of the Earthquake Research Institute, Japan [1], it described patterns of smaller earthquakes that precede great earthquakes. 

The recent April 4, 2010 M7.2 Mexicali earthquake has been the subject of considerable analysis and speculation.  It occurred at a location of high probability in the California border region with Mexico, as shown by the Open Hazards viewer (available under the Tools tab).  And while the baseline forecast on this web site does an excellent job of forecasting locations of major events, we are continually seeking to improve our forecast technology, particularly to better capture times of heightened probability.

From the news sources at MSNBC:

PASADENA, Calif. - The strong Easter earthquake physically moved the border city of Calexico.

NASA data released Wednesday revealed the magnitude-7.2 quake shifted the Calexico region up to 2 1/2 feet in a southerly direction.

The quake, centered in Baja California, caused $100 million in damage to California, primarily in Calexico.