john's picture

Update on the M5.3 Orkney, South Africa Earthquake

Below are updates on the figures from the last post on the Orkney, South Africa earthquake.  As can be seen, the probability of an M>5 earthquake within the same 100 km circular region has decreased from 68.1% to 44.9%, which is consistent with the way the forecast algorithm works. 

john's picture

M5.3 Earthquake, Orkney, South Africa, August 5, 2014

The largest earthquake to strike South Africa in 40 years killed one man and injured 17 others today.  Located near the town of Orkney, it was widely felt.  Here we use the hazard viewer to review the forecast preceding the event.  Note that the forecast was previously updated last night on August 4, so the data on the web site represent the pre-event probabilities.

In the image below, we show the location of the event together with the forecast contours.  The earthquake occurred on top of the only prominent hotspot in South Africa.

Steve's picture

Bad Day Fishin’

It is said that  “A bad day of fishing is better than a good day of work”.  I won’t argue, but if you were trolling for trout at Chehalis Lake, British Columbia on December 4, 2007, you’d have had a bad day. Chehalis Lake, 50 miles east of Vancouver is a lovely spot nestled in the mountains. Prior to that date, it was known mostly to fisher folk and 4 wheel drive enthusiasts.

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Super Typhoon Rammasun Approaching China, July 18, 2014

Information and updates on Super Typhoon Rammasun can be found here.  Data on Open Hazards web viewer from GDACS.  Super typhoon Rammasun making landfall in China.  Typhoon Matmo heading for Taiwan.

john's picture

Update on the M6.5 Namie, Japan Earthquake of July 12, 2014

It is interesting to compare the pre- and post- event forecast probabilities for the Namie, Japan earthquake.  As readers of this blog will know, probabilities in the forecast here change when a large event occurs.  For the M6.5 earthquake that occurred last saturday, probabilities for M>6 earthquakes decreased, whereas probabilities for the M>7 earthquakes increased slightly.  The changes can be seen in the attached comparison screenshots.

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Magnitude 6.5 Japan Earthquake

We have only been here in Kyoto and Sendai, Japan, 10 days and so far have experienced a super typhoon (Neoguri) and now an earthquake.  This morning, I went down to the 26th floor of our hotel here in Sendai, to photograph the rising sun.  Just before 4:00 am, the building started moderate shaking, which continued for about 20 seconds.  It turned out to be a magnitude 6.8 earthquake (later downgraded to a magnitude 6.5 event) in the trench.  I am here to give a series of lectures at Tohoku University on earthquake forecasting, so it was timely.  No damage or injuries, and no significant ts

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Super Typhoon Neoguri, July 7, 2014

Details can be found here.  We leave Kyoto tomorow, July 8 for Sendai, and should miss the worst of the storm, or so we hope.

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Typhoon Neoguri is on course to strike Japan, July 6, 2014

Details can be found here.  We are in Japan for a series of lectures in Kyoto and Sendai.

john's picture

Magnitude 5.2 Arizona Earthquake, Saturday June 28, 2014

The earthquake occurred on the Arizona side of the New Mexico-Arizona border.  Its an interesting event inasmuch as the seismicity in the area seems to be increasing, even though the forecast probabilities are fairly low.  Below is a map with a circular selection region.

Steve's picture

Lituya Bay Tsunami- A tall tale (pretty much) true

In any field of endeavor be it sports, law, medicine, or science, there are legendary places, episodes, and people that you just can’t miss reading about. In geophysics, Lituya Bay stands in this category, one almost verging on tall tale.


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