Four Cities Forecast: California Update August 3, 2010

The charts below are an update of the four cities forecast for California.  Previous updates to this forecast can be found in postings on July 8, 2010 and July 23, 2010.  Detailed explanations and details of how to read these charts can be found there.

It can be seen that the forecast for San Diego is 0.2% (20 basis points) higher than on July 23, 2010, due to the continuing small earthquake activity.  For Los Angeles, it can be seen that the current forecast is 0.05% (5 basis points) higher than on July 23, 2010.

Below is the chart of probability values taken from the calculations that led to the plots above.  Please compare to the earlier plots on July 23 and July 28.