Philippines earthquake M7.2 October 14, 2013

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Major earthquake in the Philippines last night.  The event occurred in the middle of a region of higher probability, but the exact location had a lower probability as shown in the attached images.

The first image is a screenshot of the forecast.  The second screen shot indicates that the 3-year probability of a M>6 event within a 200 km circle around the epicenter  is now 96%, whereas the 3-year probability of a M>7 event within the circle is 27%.  We can expect these probabilities to continue to change in the next few days.

Below we show a table of values for probabilities.  For additional information, please go here.

Risk Alert