Philippines earthquake M7.2 October 14, 2013
Major earthquake in the Philippines last night. The event occurred in the middle of a region of higher probability, but the exact location had a lower probability as shown in the attached images.
The first image is a screenshot of the forecast. The second screen shot indicates that the 3-year probability of a M>6 event within a 200 km circle around the epicenter is now 96%, whereas the 3-year probability of a M>7 event within the circle is 27%. We can expect these probabilities to continue to change in the next few days.
Below we show a table of values for probabilities. For additional information, please go here.
About OpenHazards Bloggers
Steven Ward is a Research Geophysicist at the Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, UC Santa Cruz. He specializes in the quantification and simulation of natural hazards. Read Steve's blog.
John Rundle is a Distinguished Professor of Physics and Geology at UC Davis and the Executive Director of the APEC Collaboration for Earthquake Simulations. He chaired the Board of Advisors for the Southern California Earthquake Center from 1994 to 1996. Read John's blog.
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