Update on Forecast Near Tohoku Coast, Japan 12/29/2012

Following the M7.3 earthquake on December 7, 2012, a series of obvious changes in spatial forecast contours are occurring off the Tohoku coast of Japan.  In the near vicinity of the M7.3 event and the M9 March 11, 2011 earthquake, it appears that the probability of an event having magnitude M>6.5 has declined.  However, in adjacent regions, spatial probabilities have evidently increased.  Of particular note is the area southeast from Tokyo, where probabilties seem to be intensifying.

Other areas to the north and south of the epicentral area of the March 11, 2011 earthquake appear to display increasing probabilities.  These results are shown in the figure below, which compares contours from 10/1/2012 to those from today, 12/29/2012.  The star in the left figure is the epicenter of the M7.3 event of 12/7/2012.  The four regions outlined in the left image below are the areas where the most obvious changes have occurred during the roughly 2 months separating the images.  In the right image below, the area where forecast probabilities have decreased are shown outlined in blue lines.  Areas where forecast probabilities have increased are shown outlined in red lines.

As previously, the forecast contours are for events having magnitude M>6.5 within the next year from the date indicated, and within 50 km of the location of interest.

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