Hurricane Rina - A Caribbean Birth

Steve's picture

The vast majority of North Atlantic Tropical Storms originate in North Africa and travel generally westward across the Atlantic gaining strength to do their damaging works in North America.  A sub-class of storms, like 2011’s Rina, are American born.  These start life in the warm waters of the southwest Caribbean and usually drift straightaway to the northwest to about the latitude of Cuba (See the map). From there, these storms can veer  in any direction from west to northeast.

Based on these historical storm tracks, and all the others too, I offer my five day wind forecast for Rina and a Site Specific forecast for New Orleans (30N, 90W). In the latter, Red, Orange and Yellow lines represent 5%, 25% and 50% probability of exceeding the stated sustained wind speed at the stated time.  Numbers in the yellow boxes represent probability of exceeding the stated sustained wind speed ANYTIME in the forecast period.  For now, the storm is a long way off and the probability for a New Orleans encounter are low.  Let’s hope that it stays that way.

 

UPDATE  10/25 21 GMT.    In the past 24 hours RIna has intensified and taken a more westerly track.Wind probabilities at New Orleans have dropped accordingly. 

Not a good time for a trip to Isla Cozumel however  (20.5N, 86.9W),  see below.

Steven N. Ward   Santa Cruz.

 

Comments

ThomasCleveland's picture

Is this how the Hurricanes form? It is very interesting to know about the formation of cyclones and hurricanes as a student of meteology. I did legitimate writing service review on Atlantic Ocean and came to know many facts regarding the weather that prevails over it.

micheal hatrick's picture

A Caribbean Birth Hurricane Rina has been striking quite far and wide, I just talk to granite denver co to get it all ready and outdone in time, Thanks for the accurate information.

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