Hurricane Irene - Wind Forecast

From the statistics of all historical storm tracks and storm strengths,  I have developed a method to forecast wind exceedence probabilities given a current storm position, velocity and maximum sustained wind. 

Here is a recent forecast for Hurricane Irene.  Red lines are potential tracks based on previous storm statistics and current storm parameters. By running many potential tracks, wind exceedence probabilities can be deduced.

Colors on the maps below plot the Maximum Sustained Wind at 25% probability for the next five days. Probabilistic forecasts like these can be used to evaluate quantitatively potential wind losses as the storm progresses.

From 8/29/2011   3 GMT

From 8/28/2011  21 GMT

From 8/28/2011  15 GMT

From 8/28/2011  9 GMT

From 8/28/2011  3 GMT

From 8/27/2011 21 GMT

From 8/27/2011 15 GMT

From 8/27/2011  3 GMT

From 8/26/2011 21 GMT

From 8/25/2011 21 GMT

From 8/24/2011 21 GMT

From 8/23/2011 21 GMT

Steven N. Ward   Santa Cruz