Venezuela Earthquake M6.1 October 11, 2013

john's picture

An earthquake having moment magnitude 6.1 occurred at 9:40 pm local time.  Located on the boundary of the Carribbean and South American tectonic plates, this event had both thrust (compressional) and strike slip (horizontal slip) components.  As an offshore event, it could be anticipated that there would not be significant damage or injuries.

The Open Hazards forecast is updated at 12:00 am EST, so the forecast currently displayed is the forecast in place at the time of the earthquake.  In the screen shot here, we show a circular region of radius 100 km around the epicenter.  We also show a table of earthquake probabilities.  We find that the probability of an earthquake having magnitude M>6 was 17% for the next year, and 81% for the next 3 years.  This is a reasonable high probability for a region this size, so the occurrence of such an earthquake would not be regarded as a surprise.

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