Update on the M6.5 Namie, Japan Earthquake of July 12, 2014

john's picture

It is interesting to compare the pre- and post- event forecast probabilities for the Namie, Japan earthquake.  As readers of this blog will know, probabilities in the forecast here change when a large event occurs.  For the M6.5 earthquake that occurred last saturday, probabilities for M>6 earthquakes decreased, whereas probabilities for the M>7 earthquakes increased slightly.  The changes can be seen in the attached comparison screenshots.

Reports in the Japan Times indicate that there was a small (20 cm) tsunami, and that 3 persons were injured.  An evacuation alert was issue for Iwate prefecture that was later rescinded.

Forecast contours for M>=6.5 earthquakes are shown here:

Table of probabilities for pre- and post-earthquake days are shown below.

Forecast timeseries for M>6 earthquakes are shown here.  Note that the probability for M>6 events decreased.

And finally, forecast probabilities for M>7 events increased very slightly (not really noticiable on the charts below).


snapch23's picture

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