M5.3 Earthquake, Orkney, South Africa, August 5, 2014

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The largest earthquake to strike South Africa in 40 years killed one man and injured 17 others today.  Located near the town of Orkney, it was widely felt.  Here we use the hazard viewer to review the forecast preceding the event.  Note that the forecast was previously updated last night on August 4, so the data on the web site represent the pre-event probabilities.

In the image below, we show the location of the event together with the forecast contours.  The earthquake occurred on top of the only prominent hotspot in South Africa.

We select a circular region of 100 km radius to compute forecast probabilities as below.